# Different approach to predict Q1 2013 based on Adduplex data. Even more impressive results.

First of all, someone asked in the comments about the basis of 21 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices by Q4 2012, so here it goes. It is based on the WP smartphones volume revealed by IDC from Q4 2011, when Lumia 800 was launched through Q4 2012,

2.75+3.3+5.4+3.6+6= 21.5 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices considering Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 figures.

Now, we thought of predicting Q1 2013 once again now by taking a different approach from our last post where, we tried to calculate volume of individual smartphones. If you remember, in January statistics, WP8 had a market share of 19% which has grown to 43% in April statistics. Now, based on the above chart by volume of WP7 devices by Q4 2012 = 17 million. Now assuming in Q1 2013, Lumia WP7 devices have sold 1.5 to 2 million units (Conservative), WP7 devices volume by Q1 2013 = 18.5 million, which is 57% according to the April chart.

Hence from April statistics, overall WP7 and WP8 volume by Q1 2013 = 18.5/0.57= 32.5 million units

So, Total WP devices sold in Q1 2013, 32.5-21 = 11.5 million, out of which WP8 devices sold = 32.5 * 0.43 – 3.8 =10 million

So, it seems if we use Adduplex data then by whichever approach, we will reach to a really encouraging 10-11 million WP smartphone sales during Q1 2013. Out of which, Nokia can certainly claim 8 to 8.8 million unit sales. You can read our alternate approach in our previous article,

Disclaimer: It all depends on the accuracy of Adduplex data and we will certainly validate it once Nokia reveals Q1 results!!.

Blogging is my major hobby. Huge Nokia fan and have been using mostly Nokia phones since my first one. Hope you have a great reading time on this blog!! Be in touch @nokiapoweruser on Twitter.

1. Now that we know the numbers, the calculations were way off (40 – 45%) 😦

• That’s why we had said we will validate Adduplex data once Q1 results are out!!

2. availablenytime

Now that we know the numbers, the calculation was way off by 40-45% 😦

3. Phoner

New refined ASP (Average Selling Price) prediction of 262 Euros for all Nokia Smartphones and ASP 278 Euros for just the Lumias. I predict this will be the highest ASP that Nokia will report due to the popularity of the 920 in the 1st quarter and because of the strong push in the coming quarters to roll out very affordable low cost WP8s (520 will be hugely popular, but will drive the ASP down).

4. Jay

Whichever way you cut it, is it smarter to be long for the next week or short? I say long.

5. runran

There are so many variables involved that all this is just an educated guess. For example if people install twice as many Adduplex apps on their new and shiny WP8 devices than the existing users of 6-12 month old WP7 devices then all our calculations are wrong. However when I look at netmarketshare or statcounter and do some calculations I reach the same result of 5 to 5.5 Mio Lumias sold by Nokia in Q1. Hey I own a lot of Nokia stock so if you are right with 8 Mio or more I’ll be more than happy. It is my experience though that Nokia fan sites are often way too optimistic.

• That’s why we already mentioned in the post that correctedness of prediction depends how correctly Adduplex data represents actual market situation. And no where we said you have to take the prediction as gospel truth!!

I would rather say it is a good chance to measure Adduplex data accuracy with help of actual results, so that we can make a better prediction going forward.

6. mehran

The best way to find the real number for sold Lumia phones in Q1 is to use L822 market share, which is 3%. We know that L822 was the most sold WP8 phone in US, even more than L920. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that 750K of them were sold in Q4 12 and Q1 13. Then, total number of WP phones in use becomes

750K/0.03 = 25M
Then, number of WP8 sold so far becomes:
25M x 0.43 = 10.75M

Although Nok has 80% of WP market share, for WP8 it is only 70%, thus we get
10.75M x 0.7 = 7.5M Lumia WP8 phones thereby 2M of them were sold in Q4 and 5.5M in Q1. Adding 2M WP7, then we get 7.5M Lumia phones were sold in Q1 13.

7. For those who think WP7 devices should have lost their usage by some millions are factually wrong. Most of the buyers are not super-rich analysts in this world. From Q4 2011 it has not even been 2 years, and there is no study to suggest that if somebody switches from WP7 to WP8 he throws WP7 device to dustbin.

Anyways even if I consider 3 million reduction in WP7 numbers based on your logic, till Q1 2013, WP7 numbers will be 15.5 million. Hence Total active WP user baser = 15.5/0.57 =27 million.
So total WP8 device numbers in = 27-15.5 =11.5. Now WP8 devices sold in Q4= 14/.081*0.19 = 3.5
WP8 devices in Q1 = 11.5- 3.5 = 8 million. Add 1.5 million WP7 to it and you get total 9.5 million devices sold in Q1………………………………….

Any more ideas!!

8. runran

You forget that those 15 MIo WP7 devices sold by Q3 2012, will be retired little by little. If I estimate that 3 Mio of those old devices disappear per quarter, and estimate 1.5 to 2 Mio WP*7* devices sold in Q1, I get 6.8 to 7.5 Mio total WP devices sold in Q1, 80% by Nokia would be 5.3-5.5 Mio.
This does not take into account that WP8 users should much more likely to install new fancy apps managed by Adduplex. However it also does not take into account that Nokia reports devices *shipped*, not sold, and with an expanding supply channel there should be more phones going into the channel than are sold in a quarter.
My guess is 5 to 5.5 Mio Lumias by Nokia this quarter.

9. Otto says

I think 21 M is too high for a total WP user base, since it doesn’t take into account the reduction of phones over that time. Not all the sold phones are still in use.

I tried it this way. Nokia has sold actually 14.14 M WP devices from Q4/11 to Q4/12, since the first million was actually achieved the day Nokia released the earnings report on January 26th. From that number we assume reduction of a modest 3 % that are not in use anymore. So Nokia holds 76-77 percent of WP market share according to AdDuplex data from January. 14.14*0,97/76,5*100 = 17.93 M active user base.

From that number, you should get Lumia sales from 6-8 M depending on your style of calculation. But good news is, like Phoner said earlier, the ASP will rise. I arrived at 210-220 euros per device.

10. Phoner

slice if many different ways….and yes it still looks good for the increase in volume of Lumias to 8+million (thanks for the follow up). Now, I also predict an average selling price of 228 Euros. This becomes a little trickier since you have to work out a “net” selling price for each handset.

Again, I still say the Asha sales volume is a huge factor in the turn around for Nokia. The success of the Asha line of phones really shows that the “burning platform” memo missed the big picture because WPs can’t compete at the lowest end of the price range like the Androids or the Ashas can.

11. Olivia

Calculus 🙂

12. mehran

I think the data are based on the active phones, which are currently running apps not all phones which have been sold so far. In this case we need to consider some of all WP7 phones are not used anymore, such as upgraded or lost. If we assume 1/3 of those phones are not active then we get a more realistic number.

13. Leif

There is one serious flaw in measuring this way. You assume all sold WP7 devices is still in use. Of the X million WP7 sold the last 2 years, how many do you think still use them? I would say at least 50% have changed their phone. That said you are calculating the market share on a way too high current WP7 base which i think gives a 50% to high sales figure in Q1 depending on how many WP7 users still using their device.

14. jeff

Looks like a very bright future for Nokia and Windows Phone OS.

15. Surfarn

amazing 😀

16. ashutosh

mathematix!!