4 million WP8 Lumias may have sold in Q4. 2.5m Lumia 920 sold worldwide, 0.75m in USA in less than 2 months.

devices-us

Updated:

Adduplex has now published much of the Windows Phone statistics on its blog. Taking the USA market share % of all devices (as shown in above chart) into consideration and also “Adduplex” has confirmed to us that 30% of Lumia 920 share may have come from USA, we can extrapolate Lumia 920 numbers to find out Lumia 822 and Lumia 810 sales figures as well.

Also today “Microsoft CEO” has said that during “Christmas time, WP devices were selling 5 times more than the same period last year. So, considering figure of 2.75 million devices reported by Gartner for Q4 2011, we may reach a figure of,

2.75/3+2.75*2/3*4.5 = 9.25 million devices for Q4 2012.

Now based on this Lumia 920 sold in Q4 (18.5+9.25)*9/100 = 2.5 million devices. Now, as according to Adduplex, 30% of these Lumia 920 have come from USA.

So, seems that 750000 Lumia 920 may have been sold in USA in less than 50 days.

Lumia 920 has a market share of 16 % in USA while Lumia 822 and 810 have shares of 10% and 3%. This translates into sales figures of 470,000 for Lumia 822 and 140,000 for Lumia 810.

Hence, Nokia may have sold, 2.5 million Lumia 920 + 0.83 million Lumia 820 +0.47 million Lumia 822 + 0.14 million Lumia 810 = 3.94 million Lumia WP8 devices in Q4 2012.

winphone-usage-dec

Adduplex has shared some of its Windows Phone stats with Winsupersite and is going to publish all the details soon. The new figures are very interesting and Lumia 920 is now enjoying 9% of Windows Phone share worldwide just one and half months in release that too with Nokia’s supply issues. It has already crossed Lumia 900 which now has 6% of WP share. Another winner for Nokia is Lumia 820 with 3% of  WP share.

Coming to Windows Phone versions, WP8 has really seen growth and now enjoys nearly 20% of overall Windows Phone share. US market analysis presents similar picture that we derived out of our analysis of “Occasional gamer stats”. Lumia 920 is best seller WP8 device in USA in spite of being on only one carrier and Lumia 822 (10%) is neck to neck with HTC 8X (11%).

We can’t emphasize more on bringing Lumia 920 or high-end Lumia 920 variant at Verizon asap, if Nokia has to really capture some meaningful US market share. Verizon has rightly promoted and discounted Lumia 822 resulting in a 10% WP share for Lumia 822 in USA.

Making sense of the %:

Starting from Q2-2011 to Q3-2012, and using IDC and Gartner numbers for Windows Phone sales each quarter, we reach to:

1.7+1.7+2.75+3.3+5.4+3.6 = 18.5 million

Now if we add Q4 2012 numbers then we may get overall number of WP7 and WP8 devices in the market. We have seen people suggesting numbers higher than 7 million for Q4. We think it may be in tune of 8 million and we will let you know in separate article why we think so :).

Hence, overall Windows Phone 7.X and 8 numbers = 18.5+ 8= 26.5 million.

  • Thus, Lumia 920 at 9% may have sold 2.4 million devices till December, which is pretty good performance considering Lumia 920 has out for only 1.5 months and with supply being so limited.
  • Lumia 820 at 3% gives a figure of 0.8 million. Hence without considering sales of Lumia 822 and 810 Nokia may have sold 3.2 million WP8 devices in December. With strong showing of Lumia 822 at Verizon this figure may reach 3.5 million very easily.

Adduplex has yet to publish full statistics on its blog, so stay tuned for more !!

Source

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About Kamal

Blogging is my major hobby. Huge Nokia fan and have been using mostly Nokia phones since my first one. Hope you have a great reading time on this blog!! Be in touch @nokiapoweruser on Twitter.

12 comments

  1. all those estimations was wrong so be carrefull with adduplex numbers extrapolations

  2. Pingback: Smartphone ASP has risen to $240 in Q4 from $204 last quarter, hinting good Lumia 920 traction.Revisiting our Q4 prediction!! | Nokiapoweruser

  3. Pingback: Verizon to offer limited edition “Red Lumia 822″ keeping Valentine’s day in mind. | Nokiapoweruser

  4. Pingback: Nokia Q4 2012 Smartphone sales prediction: 9.8 million devices sold !! | Nokiapoweruser

  5. AnalystQuestion

    With a full quarter, increased availability of Lumia devices all colours (with ramping up of production), and increased distribution (e.g. China, India) I think 2013Q1 sales could be 3 times the 2012Q4 numbers.

  6. pepe

    8 million in a quarter? Not much yet. I think 25 million in a quarter, 10% market share, would be enough to propel the ecosystem. Do you think is posible to get that number the next quarter with 7.8 and 8.0 deployed everywhere?

  7. To keep me happy as a shareholder, Nokia really needs to announce 8-10M smartphones sold (including Symbian) in Q4, smaller operating loss than earlier and a bit higher price per device than earlier. They also need to announce that mobile phones have continued to sell strong and NSN should have improved even more. I think this might be possible and analysts (or “analysts”, what ever) can be underestimating Nokia once again.

  8. There are different ways of looking at numbers. AdDuplex also says that 75% of all WP8 devices are Nokia Devices. Assuming 7 mil wp8 devices sold, it would be 4.9 mil lumia wp8 devices (or overall 5.6 mil lumia devices), (we know that 4 mil and 2.7 mil lumia devices were sold in Q2-2012 and Q3-2012 respectively – which translates to 70%+ for those Qs as well, since there are no samsung WP8 devices out yet, it is fair to assume that the lumia % of the overall WP8 is going to be more than 70%). If you go with Balmer’s comments of 4 X windows devices being sold earlier in the Q (compared to last year) and his comment of 5 X being sold around christmas (he said it yesterday in CES). Let us assume it 4.5 X for Nov-Dec. So total windows devices sold for last 2 months would be 2.75*4.5*2/3*.7 (Q4-2011 numbers times 4.5 times ‘2 of three months’ times ‘70% for nokia’) this would give us 5.8 mil for the last 2 months alone.

    If you go with Facebook MAU numbers. They went from roughly 3 mil end of oct to 4.8 mil end of dec. Given lumia installed base of almost 10 mil end of 3rd Q, it gives us a 6 mil for Nov/Dec.

    So basically no matter how we look at it we are talking about anywhere between 4.5 to 6 mil overall wp8 Lumia devices sold this Q. I am not sure what the foreacast was though. Does any one else does?

    – Pankaj

  9. Richard

    are these percentages the average percentages for december or are they measured at the end of december? This would make a big difference as it means 6 versus 8 weeks of WP8 devises being for sale.

  10. Pingback: AllPhoneNews Lumia 920 at 9% of overall Windows Phone share in December. May translate to 3.5 million Lumia WP8… | AllPhoneNews

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