Nokia Q1 2013 predictions based on Adduplex data for April 2013. Lumia 920 top sold WP device.

devices-worldwide[2]

Adduplex data for April 2013 is out and it gives us again very interesting insights into trends of Windows Phone world dominated by Nokia. Above is the data chart from January 2013. From then there have been many changes till April 2013 chart shown below. WP8 Lumia devices have increased their market share significantly and now account for 43% WP devices in the market.

Lumia 920 is now the top sold Lumia out there replacing Lumia 800. During Q1 2013Lumia 920 has gained by 5% points, while Lumia 620 has now 7% share based on the sales in only Q1 2013. Even Lumia 820 has gained 5% points. Lumia 822 which demos the potential of having a high-end Lumia at Verizon, now has 3% market share which is amazing considering availability at single carrier in one market!!

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Disclaimer: So, can we predict something out of this data comparison? We will try doing that one more time, though accuracy still is in question as Adduplex data may not be the correct representation of WP market share.

Now, let us start with 21 million Windows Phone devices at the end of Q4 2012. Let us consider, no devices have been sold in Q1 2013, so in that case growth in WP8 devices in Q1 2013 ,according to the above two charts.

21* (7+5+5+3)/100= 4.2 million WP8 devices.

So, minimum Lumia devices sold by Nokia should be (4.2+1)= 5.2 million in Q1 and then overall WP devices sold can be assumed to be 7 million.

Now, if we try to fit what volume in Q1 2013 for Nokia and Total WP devices will fit the % shown in April statistics, then it seems it should be close to 10 million overall WP sales in Q1 2013. Out of this nearly 8 million will belong to Nokia with WP8 devices taking Lion’s share at 7 out of 8 million Lumia devices sold.

Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q1-Q4
Lumia 920 4.34 1.89 2.45
Lumia 620 2.17 0 2.17
Lumia 820 2.48 0.63 1.85
Lumia 822 0.93 0.36 0.57
WP8 Lumia 7.04
WP7 Lumia 1
 Total Lumia 8
Total WP Q1 10

Prediction is fun and its correctness is totally dependent on the basis of prediction. Above prediction is dependent on Adduplex data and we are looking forward to Nokia announcing actual results of Q1 2013, so that we can further understand whether to use this statistics for any prediction in future.

Source

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About Kamal

Blogging is my major hobby. Huge Nokia fan and have been using mostly Nokia phones since my first one. Hope you have a great reading time on this blog!! Be in touch @nokiapoweruser on Twitter.

23 comments

  1. Vlad2Vlad

    @whatever…

    You’re a loud mouth clown. It’s not the actual phones sold that counts and that has to be warned about if they’re higher or lower but rather the predicted profit margins and profits themselves. And since Elop projected margins of -2% plus or minus 4% that would allow nokia to be making a positive 2% margin on devices and services and not warn and possibly be a little above that and still not warn.

    So given the large margin of error used for the projection which includes a nice profit, then nokia would not have to warn since that positive profit margin is ample room to include 2 maybe even 3 million phones as Q1 lacks the one time revenues like the sale of the headquarters from Q4. And yes, it’s 2-3 million extra lumias and not double as they got 4.4 million in Q4 but even a double means nothing as what counts is the profit and profit margins.

    So you see, clown, nokia may get as many as 8 million lumias and still be around 2% positive margin for devices and devices because there’s no way to know the exact ASP’s, one time events, royalties, license fees to Softty, Marketing costs, subsidies, additional writedowns for the 7.5 line, product mix etc Next time try thinking before opening your gash, clown. But one thing is for sure, if nokia gets 2% or slightly more and especially if they get anywhere close to 8 million lumias your should get your ass in gear and buy now, clown. Ha!

  2. Anssi

    Did toi consider that some people have changed their year old WP7 to WP8? This would actually double the change in market share balance. Sorry, I did not actually bother to read the article that well. However, based on my very very small sample 1 out of 5 people that I know have changed from Lumia 800 to 920.

  3. Pingback: Different approach to predict Q1 2013 based on Adduplex data. Even more impressive results. | Nokiapoweruser

  4. hirnschmalz

    Nokia alone has 14.4 Mio Lumias, but how about the WP7 devices before Nokia entered?
    21 Mio WP7 I took from this article. I think I read about this number in other articles before.

  5. Phoner

    My target is 8.1million Lumias……I am not sure where you get the 21 million WP number, I had thought that Nokia stated they had sold 14.4 million WP devices by the end of 2012. If you sum up the total Lumias that they have stated were sold in each quarter from their financial reports you will get right around 14.4 million.

    If you start with 14.4 million and you assume that NO WP7 devices where sold in the first qtr, then from the Adduplex data you get 6 million WP8 Lumia’s in the first quarter. Now we know that WP7 devices were sold…..so now let’s use the Adduplex data and base the calculations on the Lumia 710(the 710 is best since it was one of the first phones sold). Assuming ZERO Lumia 710s sold in the first quarter we now get 7.8 million Nokia Lumias sold in the first quarter.

    Notice how everyone is focusing on the Lumias…..but the other big key factor for Nokia’s turn around is the number of Asha phones sold. Because their average selling price is close to three times that of their other feature phones and they have had significant growth in volume in the 4th quarter, this will make a big difference in the “mobile device” revenue. I am predicting 12 million Asha phones this quarter, which is up from 9.3 million.

  6. hirnschmalz

    I would take the AdDuplex numbers differently:
    Assuming Lumia 710 has not been sold at all in Q1, and dropped in share from 20% to 13% and eof DEcember there were 21 Mio WP phones in use – then in Q1 11,2 Mio WP phones were sold. With Nokia share of 80%, this would make 9 Mio Lumias in Q1.
    All this is based on the AdDuplex numbers – in case they are wrong, this calculation is wrong. However, IMO the AdDuplex cannot wrong enough to not underscore the increased Lumia sales in Q1.
    I am afraid that all people saying “Nokia is doomed” “Symbian rocks” or “Meego rocks” are going to be proven wrong

  7. hirnschmalz

    On 10 January 2013 Nokia published their profit warning for fiscal 2012:
    Nokia exceeds previous Q4 2012 outlook for Devices & Services and Nokia Siemens Networks

    So they still would have until tomorrow to meet the same timeline.

  8. Peter

    What you say about profit warnings and legal responsibility is simply not true. Are you mistaken or lying?

  9. Pingback: AllPhoneNews Nokia Q1 2013 predictions based on Adduplex data for April 2013. Lumia 920 top sold WP8 device. | AllPhoneNews

  10. pentti penttinen

    What if Nokia will give a warning today afternoon or later this week were they say the above is correct. There is quite a lot data supporting that the Lumia sales figures are closer to 8 million than 4 million.

  11. Whatever

    You’re so wrong in these predictions that it’s painful to read them.

    Nokia has a legal obligation to inform the investors with a positive profit warning if their profits end up being significantly different than what they predicted in the beginning of Q1 2013. Since no such warning has been issued, you can bet your ass the sales have not been more than what they’ve originally have been expecting (4-5M units). This fact only is enough to toss your prediction to the waste bin.

    It’s embarrassing to read these kind of analyses.

    • Why bother reading then? On a second note read the last paragraph of the post. I am not the one, who has prepared the charts!!

    • youbetcha

      Where does it say Nokia has to annouce anything before earnings ? Even so 8 million sounds like a good number. Nokia doesn'[t have an obligation to protect shorts but they do have an obligation to protect shareholders. I say wait to announce the good numbers on the 17th and burn the shorts

    • Tellus

      It took Nokia 10 Days into Q1 to give us a profit warning from Q4. What day is it tomorrow? Gush, it is the 10th April, 10 Days into Q2! 🙂 Prepare for some good news.

    • Anssi

      I hope you understand that you do not understand the stock market law or even the Nokia company structure enough to make these kind of comments. Nokia is not just a WP/smartphone company, actually way less than third of the revenue comes from smart devices, part of devices and services division. So couple of million Lumia devices more than expected would not make that much change in their financial position that would require a profit warning, in my opinion 🙂

      • Whatever

        This prediction suggest over double what they’re expecting. That’s bound to make a big enough dent in their profits to show.

        • Mark

          You’re embarassing yourself, go read a book moron, profit warnings are only mandatory if profits are expected to be lower than predicted.

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