POV: Why Adduplex data is skewed towards WP8 devices.

We predicted Q1 based on Adduplex’s reports and promised to validate it once Q1 results are out. Now Nokia has sold 5.6 million devices with Lumia WP8 constituting 2/3 of 5.6 million = 3.73 million in Q1. Extrapolating to total WP8 devices, this may reach = 2/3*7 = 4.7 million.

WP8 devices sold in Q4 2012= 2/3*6 = 4 million (May be lesser as well)

Hence total WP8 devices sold till date = 8.7 million.

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Now according to Adduplex data, WP8 makes 43% of all WP7.5 and WP8 devices by early April. Hence total number of WP devices should be = 8.7/0.43*100 = 20 million. Which is way too less than what is indicated by sales figures released by Nokia and likes of Gartner and IDC. In fact till Q4 2012 there should be 21.5 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices in market.

2.75+3.3+5.4+3.6+6= 21.5 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices considering Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 figures.

Now add 5.6+1.4 million= 7 million devices which is quite realistic for Q1 2013 and it comes about 28.5 million WP devices till Q1 2013. Let us assume that 3.5 million WP devices are no longer in use ( as suggested by many of you) then we still have 25 million active WP devices left in market. Hence, Adduplex data is quite skewed towards WP8 devices and accounts for only 20 million out of 25 million active WP devices!!

Then it looks like total WP8%  share is 8.7/25 = 34 % and not 43% as reported by Adduplex. There is about 9/34*100 = 26% skew in Adduplex data towards WP8 devices, it seems. We will certainly consider this skew going forward in our predictions!!

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About Kamal

Blogging is my major hobby. Huge Nokia fan and have been using mostly Nokia phones since my first one. Hope you have a great reading time on this blog!! Be in touch @nokiapoweruser on Twitter.

10 comments

  1. Pingback: Nokia may have already shipped more than 3 million Lumias in April. Adduplex data reveals one more high-end device!! | Nokiapoweruser

  2. Pingback: Lumia 520 and Lumia 620 account for 32% of WP market share in India. | Nokiapoweruser

  3. Luigi

    Reuters forecasted 5,6 milion Lumia sales …so they were surely not wrong but well informed …and tha’s what counts. For being a personal blog you know “apparently” well what Reuters tells about financials ?

  4. jeff

    At least the 928 is coming to Verizon. Since the 822 did so well there and it wasn’t a true flagship, the 928 will provide something the consumers will want. This will drive the most sales in the us.

  5. Whatever

    There’s also one interesting way to calculate the number of WP devices using AdDuplex data using Lumia 822.

    Consider the following:

    1) Nokia has reported the total unit sales of North American market (US&Canada) in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 to be 0.7M + 0.4M = 1.1M, coming predominantly from smart devices (Lumia).

    2) Given the way WP8 devices have replaced all the WP7 devices from the US AdDuplex data, most of the Lumia sales from that period is most likely WP8 units. Instead of 2/3 ratio mentioned, for the NA market it’s been probably 4/5.

    3) Lumia 822 is the most popular WP device in the US with a market share of 22%. Using the AdDuplex reported ratio of Lumia WP8 devices in US, this would mean that approximately 43% of the Lumias sold in US are Lumia 822’s.

    Lumia 822 sales number = Lumia WP8 sales in US * 0.43

    Since Lumia sales in NA practically means Lumia sales in US, we should be able to use that number as it is.

    Lumia WP8 sales in US = 1.1M * 0.8 (WP8 adoption in US is higher than elsewhere) = 0.9M

    Lumia 822 sales number = 0.9M * 0.43 = ~0.4M

    This looks like very plausible number and must be very close to the real number of devices sold. We know that Nokia sold 1.1M devices in North America between Q4/12 and Q1/13 (Nokia’s own report) and we know that Lumia 822 is one of the most popular Lumia devices sold in that time period.

    We also know that Lumia 822 shows (3%) even in the worldwide list of WP devices (AdDuplex), so it looks like we could use this 0.4M number to estimate numbers of other Lumia devices out there:

    Lumia 920: 14% / 3% * 0.4M = 1.9M
    Lumia 820: 8% / 3% * 0.4M = 1.0M
    Lumia 620: 7% /3% * 0.4M = 0.9M
    Lumia 822: 0.4M
    Lumia 810: 0.1M ?

    Lumia 900: 4% / 3% * 0.4M = 0.5M
    Lumia 800: 14% / 3% * 0.4M = 1.9M
    Lumia 710: 13% / 3% * 0.4M = 1.7M
    Lumia 610: 11% / 3% * 0.4M = 1.5M

    Total = ~10M Lumia devices.

    Now something clearly does not add up. Nokia itself has reported selling 20M Lumias to date, so the numbers are about 2x off. What is it? Something in the AdDuplex data or something in my brain?

  6. Luigi

    Hello , your calculations don’t match. It would be rather better next time to refer to analysts forecasts of Reuters –> they always have good figures correlating to the effective sales numbers.
    Don’t be too positive , that makes your site doutbtful and investors are not naive…

    • I am not being too positive here. It is all about the basis of calculation which was itself skewed. About Reuters, they haven’t been able to forecast Nokia’s results corectly till this date.

      One more thing, we do it for fun and not for misleading investors. It is a personal blog!!

  7. Pingback: AllPhoneNews POV: Why Adduplex data is skewed towards WP8 devices. | AllPhoneNews

  8. Whatever

    I think there’s an error here:

    “Lumia WP8 devices sold in Q4 2012= 2/3*6 = 4 million (May be lesser as well)”

    Nokia reported to have sold 4.4M Lumias in Q4 2012. This would make the number of Lumia WP8 devices sold in Q4 2012 = 2/3*4.4 = 2.9M.

    2.5M is most like a more safer number given the very limited availability of WP8 devices during Q4.

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