We predicted Q1 based on Adduplex’s reports and promised to validate it once Q1 results are out. Now Nokia has sold 5.6 million devices with Lumia WP8 constituting 2/3 of 5.6 million = 3.73 million in Q1. Extrapolating to total WP8 devices, this may reach = 2/3*7 = 4.7 million.
WP8 devices sold in Q4 2012= 2/3*6 = 4 million (May be lesser as well)
Hence total WP8 devices sold till date = 8.7 million.
Now according to Adduplex data, WP8 makes 43% of all WP7.5 and WP8 devices by early April. Hence total number of WP devices should be = 8.7/0.43*100 = 20 million. Which is way too less than what is indicated by sales figures released by Nokia and likes of Gartner and IDC. In fact till Q4 2012 there should be 21.5 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices in market.
2.75+3.3+5.4+3.6+6= 21.5 million WP7.5 and WP8 devices considering Q4 2011 to Q4 2012 figures.
Now add 5.6+1.4 million= 7 million devices which is quite realistic for Q1 2013 and it comes about 28.5 million WP devices till Q1 2013. Let us assume that 3.5 million WP devices are no longer in use ( as suggested by many of you) then we still have 25 million active WP devices left in market. Hence, Adduplex data is quite skewed towards WP8 devices and accounts for only 20 million out of 25 million active WP devices!!
Then it looks like total WP8% share is 8.7/25 = 34 % and not 43% as reported by Adduplex. There is about 9/34*100 = 26% skew in Adduplex data towards WP8 devices, it seems. We will certainly consider this skew going forward in our predictions!!