Recent Facebook MAU statistics for Q1 2013 shows bigger growth in just two months of Q1 2013 than seen in entire Q4 2012. About 965,000 MAU growth was seen from Q3 2012 to Q4 2012, while till February only the MAU growth from Q4 2012 to Q1 2013 is about 1,217,000 which is around 26% more already. Extrapolating this may give us a growth figure of 1,825,000 for Q1 2013.
Now taking cue from our earlier calculations that till Q4 2013 about 21 million WP users were there, then this Q1 growth figure of 1,825,000 will be equivalent to about 9.77 million new WP users added in the Q1 2013. Just like, Q4 2012, Nokia can lay it claim to about 80% of these 9.77 million new users, which translates to about 8 million Lumia sales. So, Q1 2013 may be much stronger than Q4 2012 for Nokia in terms of Lumia numbers !!
Disclaimer: Again, this all may not be accurate and is based on statistical extrapolation of the Facebook MAU figures.
Thanks Tellus for the Tip. Cheers !!
Nokiapoweruser 
I estimate a sales from 8 mil to 10mil for Q1.
First, from the news now about 1mil WP devices sold this translate to 13mil and assume out of 75% is Nokia, = 9.75mil
News quote – “http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2013/01/11/windows-phone-on-course-to-sell-one-million-handsets-per-week/”
Good calculation Ravi Kiran, what is more, MAU did not grow in february at all:
http://appstats.eu/apps/facebook/1004419-facebook-for-windows-phone
So according to MAU also your estimation of 4.5 millions is too much.
No, the method of using averages of 3 months does not work at all. An example: in period1 MAU grows from 3M to 5M, average is 4M. In period2 MAU does not grow at all but stays at 5M, average 5M.
Your calculation tells: in period1 MAU was 4M and in period2 MAU was 5M so MAU grew in 1M in period2. In reality MAU grew 2M in period1 and zero(!) in period2.
If you are estimating selling figures which means giving tips and data for stock people also, please be careful not to make numbers too positive, some people (I know it for sure) make investments based on this kind of estimates.
Guys, even if you take stats from a particular day it will have either more than average or less than average numbers. Chances of making error are also there !! So, it is much better to go on a average basis than day to day . Anyways, it is more for fun than actual prediction. That we will see when we have data from other sources as well :).
Good point Alex and oh. Looks like the site has data only till feb 9. Any windows phones sales after feb 9 are unaccounted for in the data. A different graph from the same site shows more information.
http://www.appmtr.com/facebook/app/135892916448833-facebook-for-windows-phone/last-3months-stats/
The MAU at the end of december is 4.8M and MAU on feb 9 is 5.4M. That is 0.6M increase in 40 days. If we extrapolate it to 90 days, it will be a 1.35M increase and MAU at the end of Q1 should be 4.8M + 1.35M = 6.15M. So if 4.8M is equal to 21M phones, then 6.15 will be 26.9M which will mean WP sales of 5.9M for Q1 out of which 4.5M might be Nokias. But with new models and new markets added recently, the numbers might be more than 4.5M.
Please fix these calculations. You should not use the averages of mau in one quarter since it gives totally wrong results. FB MAU grew in Q4 ~1.5M and in Q1 it has grown ~0.5M. When you use averages, you move some of the growth to the next quarter.
Another problem will be, how many symbian less will be sold and if Lumias can replace it. But am confident about Nokia this 2013
I think this assumption is not quite right. In the beginning of January the MAU was 4.8 millions. Today it is 5.3 millions. So MAU has increased by 500 000, not by 1 200 000. When you use averages of the MAU in one quarter, it does not tell us right numbers. Let’s assume that in Q1 MAU has not grown at all. Still the number would be 4.8 millions and 800 000 more that the average MAU was in Q4.
awesome, The calculations look much more plausible this time.
Based in this information i see 8 millo or more.
Pepe: “In the last quarter you proyected 8 million lumia sold”, That was pryeced with in this information? (Facebook for windows phone?) If the anwer is yes, then whe can forget it. If not, it can work
Next report is in april, anybody knows the date? Whit this strong sales and a forecast by the analyst whit around 5 milion sold lumias for q1,, well i rest my case ;D
Sales numbers are good, but for the stock in q1 2013 other factors might play a huge role. Still not sure what is going on with Nokia problem with tax in India.
With the 620 and 720 coming to India in March, I can see another 6 million Lumias yet to be sold this quarter. Nokia is confident in it’s Lumia line where they have much more production going for these phones now
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We must not forget that the remaining part of Q1 may even get greater. Lumia 620 is doing well. Even Lumia 520, 720 will get to asia market in beginning of mars. I bet sales numbers will get much higher the remaining time of Q1. Time to invest in Nokia stocks! The turnaround is here.
In the last quarter you proyected 8 million lumia sold, but Nokia reported only 4.4 million.
That was based on “data from Adduplex” and there was some confusion about no. of Lumia wp 7 and wp 8 sold till Q4 2012, and what data is covered by Adduplex.
Later,We revised it. Read More, http://nokiapoweruser.com/2013/01/11/smartphone-asp-rose-to-240-in-q4-from-204-last-quarter-hinting-good-lumia-920-traction-revisiting-our-q4-prediction/
haha, ok.
If this strong sales continues, how many lumias do you think that nokia can sell for q1 2014? Estimates by analyst is 5 milion.